- Oct 31, 2025
Estimating Your Student's Scholarship Success Chances
- Dave The Scholarship Coach
I often see two common mistakes among parents when it comes to estimating their student’s ability to earn scholarships. Both of these miscalculations are costing families a lot of money.
Overestimating Likely Merit Aid
On the one hand, I often find parents who believe that their students will be awarded huge merit scholarships from their future college. Often, these students have high GPAs, lots of extracurriculars, and other qualities that colleges are looking for. However, the truth is that there are only so many merit scholarships available, and it is an incredibly competitive college admissions and scholarship landscape. The only time merit aid is guaranteed is when the college publishes a merit aid grid that shows the exact awards they grant, based on a student’s GPA and/or test scores, like the University of Alabama publishes.
Victoria was an incredibly high-achieving student in high school - the type of student most would expect would be offered a large amount of merit aid. However, when her acceptance from her dream college came in, they only offered her a mere $1000.00 scholarship. Thankfully, Victoria and her family pivoted, and we worked together to secure her a full-tuition scholarship at a different college. However, even this scholarship was not automatic - Victoria had to apply and interview for it. Victoria says that the practice and experience she had gained by previously applying for outside scholarships was essential for her secure the full-tuition scholarship. And, thanks to the additional outside scholarships Victoria applied for and earned, her dorm and other college expenses are being covered by scholarships!
Underestimating Ability To Earn Outside Scholarships
On the other hand, I often see parents who believe that earning outside scholarships is simply a matter of luck, that they are “impossible” to win, or that only “top students” earn them. I am so glad that I didn’t take this pessimistic view. My son was not a “top student.” In fact, he wasn’t even the best student among his friend group! Yet, he earned 23 outside scholarships, the majority of which were national scholarships. Thanks to these scholarships, we paid only $1500 for his college degree - tuition, room, board, books, and fees included.
Talon was also not a “top student.” In fact, his mom refers to Talon as “a normal kid.” Yet, to date, Talon has earned over $100,000 in scholarships, 99% of which is from outside scholarships, not merit aid.
Madeline is a great example of a good, but not “top,” student. She applied for a full-tuition scholarship from her choice of college. Although she didn’t win the top prize, she was awarded a smaller scholarship. However, her big wins came when she earned 18 outside scholarships!
Likewise, Isabella earned multiple outside scholarships, despite not being a “top student.”
These are just a few examples that demonstrate that outside scholarships are not awarded randomly, and that students don’t need perfect GPAs to earn them.
If you would like the same level of support that I provided my son, Victoria, Talon, Isabella, and numerous other students, check out the Scholarship Navigator Program for the Class of 2026, Class of 2027, or Freshmen & Sophomores.


